The Seven: Magnificent? Or misguided?

The departure of seven MPs from the Labour Party is not the most significant political news of the last few days.

That was a poll published by the anti-racist group Hope not Hate which found that over two-thirds – in fact, 68% - of British voters felt that no party represented their views or interests.

Followers of Jeremy Corbyn in Labour will deny that, convinced as they are that the policies on which he secured significant support in the last general election are massively popular. That denial is part of a broader state of mind that denies anything that seems to conflict with their world view. They seem to forget that though he won far more votes than expected, he still lost that election, coming second in a competition where there is no sliver medal.

What they also deny is that times have changed. Back in 2017, Corbyn was the new kid on the block. He seemed to have a fresh message, to have come from a different mould that produces most politicians. Above all, he seemed honest, principled and courageous. Two years on, little of that remains.

He brought a great many people into the Labour Party, the vast majority of them opposed to Brexit as well as attracted by his stance. But then he spent eighteen months trying to hide his true position on Brexit, which left his reputation for honesty in tatters. And when he finally made a few grudging remarks on the subject, he revealed that he was indeed, as many had suspected, a Brexiter. He has yet to confirm that with a vote in parliament – so far, his Brexit voting record is unblemished – but many of his erstwhile supporters haven’t waited for that, but are already drifting away, disappointed.

Opposite him is Theresa May, chasing an impossible dream of a compromise Brexit deal which will allow her somehow to hold together the battling wings of her Conservative Party. She ducks and weaves and fails to deliver. The result is a growing lack of confidence in her, so that her fellow MPs only resisted voting her out for fear of provoking a general election in which their own seats might be in danger.

In other words, the leaders of both main parties are trying to be all things to all men, and failing, as always happens in these cases, to be anything to anyone.

It’s not at all surprising, therefore to see both parties in a race to the bottom in the polls. They are currently neck and neck on 37%, a level of popularity that, in the past, would have guaranteed defeat in a general election, were it not that the other lot are doing just as lamentably.

In the light of this fine track record it is, if anything, surprising that only two-thirds of the electorate feel let down by both main parties. Certainly, it’s hard to deny – well, if you’re not a Corbynista it’s hard to deny it, but they can deny anything – that the political system is broken and badly needs fixing. The departure of the seven MPs might trigger a political realignment that could be a first step towards that repair.

Certainly, that’s what they seem to hope. And they may be right.

Seven MPs quit Labour: but will they be magnificent champions?

It’ll only happen if they can draw some more MPs to them. Seven is far too few. Maybe less than a handful of Tories from the left of the Party, though it’s hard to see how you can really build a Centre-Left movement with the Tories – look at the disastrous damage that Nick Clegg inflicted on his party by trying to play that game. Above all, they need thirty or forty more Labour MPs.

If they reach a critical mass, they may pull the trick off. Then they may indeed emerge as the Magnificent Seven. The pioneers with the courage to break free from tribal loyalty, to set the political system on a new and more hopeful course.

But if they don’t, they’ll just be seven lonely voices clamouring in the desert. They’ll look as though they had merely jumped before they were pushed, which is hardly a path to the moral high ground. And it will be remembered about them that they may have damaged the best hopes of success of the anti-Brexit movement: as anti-Brexiters, they may have made their stance look anti-Labour.

It’s all down to timing. If they’ve got it right, they’ll look like champions. But if they’ve got it wrong, they’ll simply turn into an obscure footnote in history.

Quite a gamble. Times are going to be interesting...