Why we thank Mr Trump

On 4 January, I tweeted that 2021 was going to be the year when we said goodbye to Trump. A reply quickly came back:

Trump is not gone. #6/1/21

Tweets I received about the Trumper movement

At the time, I thought that the date was relatively innocuous – just a reference to the final stage of the electoral process, certification of the results by Congress, and the vain hope that there might still be an outcome favourable to Trump. 

My response was to agree he hadn’t gone yet, but his increasing desperation showed that he wouldn’t last beyond 20 January. Back came another Tweet:

Are you actually following the election fraud and imminent US civil war?

In my response, I pretended to misunderstand the reference to ‘fraud’ and said that I didn’t think Trump would get away with his fraud. As for the alleged imminent civil war, my view was that the Trump supporters would not in the event have the stomach for a war, and if a number found the spirit for it, they’d be overrun quickly.

Well, I’ve been forced back to those tweets following what actually happened on 6 January. Now I understand that the reference to ‘imminent US civil war’ and to the date of 6 January was no coincidence. What we saw on that night, when rioters invaded the DC Capitol building, was the start of predicted civil war, with the aim of achieving the forlorn hope behind the statement “Trump is not gone”. 

My view that it was forlorn, incidentally, hasn’t changed. It isn’t going to happen. As I think I was right to say that the resistance against Biden’s victory would be seen off quickly. 

Indeed, that happened immediately after the invasion of Congress. Just as soon as the Capitol was clear, the certification process started up again and continued through most of the night, ultimately reaching the only outcome that was right and legitimate: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have been validly elected President and Vice President respectively. 

The rioters had gone. Far too few of them have been arrested yet, but at any rate, if that was the start of a Civil War, it has captured no territory, and its only achievement has been to delay a process which took place anyway, with an outcome that was always inevitable.

In other words, instead of being a dramatic, gigantic, even monstrous undertaking, this incipient civil war has turned out to be ugly, damaging and ultimately ineffectual. Which is a perfect expression of everything about the Trump presidency. He has hurt many people directly, for instance by unleashing violence against them, and he has hurt far more indirectly, for instance the 360,000 deaths flowing from his failure to take proper action over Covid. He has toyed with war with Iran, and appeasement of North Korea. He has fanned racism and xenophobia. 

On the other hand, he’s achieved next to nothing. Sometimes, that’s a good thing. For instance, that promised wall with Mexico would have been an obscenity, but he didn’t have the guts or the ability to deliver it.

So why have I referred to thanking Trump in the title of this post?

Because it is one of the most striking effects of his incompetence that he again and again plays into the hands of his enemies. For instance, the other important event that took place on 6 January was the confirmation of two Democratic senatorial wins in Georgia. 

Although Joe Biden won the Presidential election on 3 November, the Democrats did far less well in other races. They lost seats in the House of Representatives. The failed to take the Senate.

That last failure was going to mean that Biden might find his legislative programme – perhaps even his Cabinet appointments – blocked. But with the two wins in Georgia, Democrats do, after all, have the slimmest margin of control in the Senate. The two sides are exactly equal, with fifty seats each, but the new Vice President, Kamala Harris, has a casting vote, giving the Democrats control after all.

That failure of Trump’s was, of course, a huge success for the Democrats. For that, a huge amount of credit goes to the candidates, to the celebrity figures that campaigned for them, and for the huge numbers of unnamed party canvassers who worked for the win. Special credit goes to Stacey Abrams, who has been doing outstanding work for years to get voters, and above all black voters, registered. 

But then there’s a particular contribution made to the Democratic success that absolutely has to be acknowledged. I don’t think the victory could have been assured without Donald Trump’s input. His constant whingeing about the outcome of an election he thinks was stolen, and the vast majority knows was legitimate, has put off just enough Republicans – either persuading them to stay at home, or even to vote for the Democrats – to make the two victories possible.

Trump as the Democrats’ friend? Not a title he would want. But then he didn’t want to be a loser either.

The mobster's mob attacking the Capitol building in DC

And things have only got worse since. The assault on Congress will have an even bigger effect nationally than the ‘Stop the Steal’ campaign produced in Georgia. That’s because the crowd that invaded the Capitol did so on Trump’s incitement. 

He’s been a mobster for a long time. He’s now built himself a mob.

Nothing will switch the allegiance of the hard core of diehard Trump supporters. But ordinary mainstream Republicans, who backed Trump only because he was the party’s candidate, must be at the very least wondering how they can continue.

So, thank you Mr Trump. It was about time that the Democratic Party received some additional help. So good of you to provide it.

And to the author of the ‘imminent civil war’ tweet, I see what you meant now.  I’m just delighted that things have worked out no better than I warned you. 

It’s not going to get any better for you.