Showing posts with label Credit Rating. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Credit Rating. Show all posts

Tuesday, 7 January 2014

Eggs broken, but where's the omelette?

You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs.

That’s a sentiment that’s repeatedly used, and for one purpose only: to justify damage to individuals to serve some more general and, supposedly, lofty goal. 

The present British government came to office determined to make omelettes, and it’s certainly broken a lot of eggs.

It’s aim was to wipe out the ‘structural’ budget deficit on public expenditure over its five year term. In effect, that would mean bringing public expenditure nearly into balance. Equally they were going to get public debt falling, because they regarded the high level of indebtedness as a disaster in itself as well as an indictment of the previous Labour government. Finally, with George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, in the lead, they set up an acid test of their performance, protection of Britain’s triple-A credit rating.


George Osborne:
great at breaking eggs, not so good on the omelette
To achieve those aims, they cracked a lot of eggs, principally among the working and non-working poor. Systems that made life possible on low incomes, such as tax credits or housing benefits, have been eliminated or scaled back. The disabled have been forced off benefits by being classified as fit for work, with large numbers of these fit people subsequently dying. 

They also introduced what’s come to be known as the Bedroom Tax. This measure means that people on housing benefit who have a spare room, lose a proportion of their benefit to pay for it. For many this has created a double-bind: unable to cover their rent and unable to find smaller accommodation into which they could move, they face eviction and being made homeless.

Charities dealing with homelessness report large increases in their workload.

At the same time, Britain has half a million people dependent on food banks, compared to 40,000 when the government was formed.

So much for the broken eggs.

What about the omelette? Growth is back but at an anaemic rate. The coveted triple-A credit rating has been lost. The deficit is dipping but is still far higher than it was under Labour before the crisis struck. Even the government admits that the target of eliminating the ‘structural’ element within a parliament has been irretrievably missed.

As for debt, far from starting to fall, it’s risen from around 70% at the end of the Labour government to nearly 100% under the present one. The Tories liked to attack the previous, Labour government for amassing an unacceptable level of debt and leaving it to the next generation to manage for us.

Far from wiping out that debt they’ve hugely increased it. And since they’ve taken youth unemployment to nearly 20%, the highest level for 17 years, they’ve made it significantly more difficult for the next generation to deal with it.

And what has George Osborne's reaction been to this track record?

He wants to take another £25 billion out of the benefit budget.

That’s going to plunge a lot more people into grinding poverty. It will break a lot more eggs. But will it produce a better omelette? Or will it just give the same results of the cuts we've seen so far, and make things a lot worse?

Would Labour make things better? Well, they did last time. They got many things wrong, but they spent a lot on improving the NHS and they took a million kids out of poverty. Under the present government, 300,000 have been driven back in, and the NHS is groaning at the seams.

Osborne has at least made the choice before us clear. On the one hand, Labour which made some limited progress in dealing with a series of fundamental problems. On the other hand, a Conservative Party which has failed to achieve its stated goals despite inflicting devastating cuts on the rest of us. And, with that enviable track record, they
re asking us to give them a chance to do a lot more of the same for another five years.

Does anyone really want to give them that opportunity? Or, putting it another way, if you’re contemplating voting Tory – are you sure you can really afford it?


Saturday, 23 February 2013

George Osborne school report: could try harder, might try something else


Georgie: he may already have found a better place
in which to pursue his career
Exclusive: following Moody’s decision to downgrade Britain’s credit rating, we have received an old school report for George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who previously asked to be measured by his success in retaining the AAA rating he felt was such a source of pride for Britain.

As a public service, we reproduce it here in full.


School Report

Student’s name: George Osborne
Subjects: Economics, economics, economics

We were all pleased to see Georgie decide to take up the challenge of a tough course of study, triple economics, even though he hadn’t previously had much success in this subject area. He agreed at the time that he would have to make quick progress to catch up with other students better qualified than himself, and it was refreshing to see his attitude, summed up by his desire to set himself demanding benchmarks to judge his own performance.

However, we are a little concerned that he may not have picked his benchmarks well. Choosing to eliminate the structural deficit before the end of the course was always ambitious, and it’s unfortunate that he has had to abandon the goal early, as deficit is growing again.

The decision to abandon the goal was no doubt justified, but Georgie does need to ask himself whether he was right to have made so much of adopting it in the first place: he will undoubtedly have created disappointment among his examiners and possibly in himself (though his wonderful self-confidence seems to be protecting him from showing any).

Equally, he is having to overcome a possible sense of failure over his objectives on debt, growing rather than falling as the deficit is creeps upwards.

We are also concerned that, if the end of this quarter sees us in a triple-dip recession, he may begin to wonder whether he made the right course choices.

Finally, it was a great regret to us that he set himself the task of holding on the AAA credit rating. We tried to warn him that he was perhaps attaching too much importance to a rather discredited measure, but he did insist on turning it into a ‘benchmark’ against which he expected to be judged. Since that rating has now been lost, he may wonder whether he ought to look at different career options.

Georgie has made it clear that he intends to persevere with his selections for now. But we feel he needs to be thinking about possible alternatives. The end of the course in May 2015 is not that far away and he has to be aware that things at that point may not work out as he hopes.

At any rate, the signs are not particularly encouraging for the moment.


Effort:- B-
Achievement: D
Overall: Might consider a change in career