Like a lot of slogans, it’s pretty meaningless. Does it mean leaving the Single Market and Customs Union too? Or just the EU institutions themselves? A hard Brexit in other words, or a soft one?
No one’s saying, least of all May.
Well, if she isn’t saying, she’s certainly been hinting of late. People voted to get control of immigration, she tells us, and I suspect she’s right. You can’t tell from the referendum results, because it wasn’t mentioned in the question, but listening to the conversations in the media or simply in the streets, it’s clear a great many people voted Leave to put an end to free movement of people into Britain. A great many of them are worried that Poles are taking their jobs, or they simply don’t like hearing Polish on the streets – “this is England and people should speak English”.
They forget that at one time a lot of Celts must have resented hearing Anglo-Saxon spoken in this same green and pleasant land. But then they probably wouldn’t care even if they did remember.
May has been playing to this particular group, with promises about control of immigration. That’s not possible without a hard Brexit including departure from the single market, since membership of market requires acceptance of freedom of movement of EU citizens. So, though she hasn’t made it completely explicit, for May it seems that “Brexit means hard Brexit”. That would leave Britain having to deal with the EU on the same terms as any other member of the World Trade Organisation, except for any more favourable terms it could extract by negotiation. Tough, considering that the EU is the world’s biggest trading bloc, and right on Britain’s doorstep.
Business isn’t keen on this option.
Still, the uncertainty continues. May isn’t committing herself to hard Brexit. She claims she’s playing her cards close to her chest and doesn’t want to reveal her negotiating stance to other EU leaders. Many of us have wondered whether it might be because she doesn’t have much of an idea what her stance is. Basically, she can’t get off the fence.
Well, yesterday we had the excellent news that car manufacturer Nissan would be building two more models at its plant in Sunderland, in North East England. That secures 7000 jobs in the plant itself and many others in the supply chain. It doesn’t just protect jobs in a region that desperately needs them, it provides new ones.
A matter for nothing but celebration.
However, it’s odd. The Nissan Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn made it clear this summer that Nissan wouldn’t be investing any further in its UK operations if it couldn’t guarantee continued easy access to the European Single Market.
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| Carlos Ghosn leaving Downing Street after meeting Theresa May |
Alternatively, has May assured Nissan that Britain would either remain in the Single Market or compensate the car manufacturer for any financial loss it incurs as a result of leaving? That would be costly. She can’t offer such a deal to Nissan and not to other car makers. She can’t offer it to car makers and not to other exporters.
We continue to live in interesting times. There are a great many more questions than answers. And one of the more intriguing is still what on Earth does “Brexit means Brexit” really mean?
6 comments:
I can only guess you and others are having a moment of total incomprehension, let's make it more simple, exit means exit as I am sure any EU officially would also tell you. Maybe the question should be asked, of the inventors of the meaningless phrases what does soft exit or hard exit mean. If you exit you exit, simple, you may then from both sides think it's a good idea to start a new relationship with new rules to protect the financial relationship you once had. Would you disclose the bargaining chips berfoehand, well no unless you were a fool. So what do you do, moan and ensure the result fails or be strong play it close and shut up. Just think about how business is done, I have done this many a time, some list many won but sure as hell I know the game rules.
I can only guess you and others are having a moment of total incomprehension, let's make it more simple, exit means exit as I am sure any EU officially would also tell you. Maybe the question should be asked, of the inventors of the meaningless phrases what does soft exit or hard exit mean. If you exit you exit, simple, you may then from both sides think it's a good idea to start a new relationship with new rules to protect the financial relationship you once had. Would you disclose the bargaining chips berfoehand, well no unless you were a fool. So what do you do, moan and ensure the result fails or be strong play it close and shut up. Just think about how business is done, I have done this many a time, some list many won but sure as hell I know the game rules.
Does exit mean leaving the Customs Union or staying in?
All the rhetoric says it does.
The behaviour over Nissan say it doesn't.
So which is it?
As I said my view and I would suspect the view of any eu leader is that exit means exit full stop. There are no degrees of exit, it's rather like when people say, it's almost unique, what on earth does that mean. Anyway once you have agreed you have left you can all start from a clean slate start to talk about what sort of future relationship works. The problem is that if it's not so bad for the UK other EU members may well which to do the same as the UK. The EU is a bit of a modern dictatorship, in many ways it's attempting to do what the Germans had a go at some time back which caused a bit of a problem back in the mid 20th C.
Please don't say you're trying to draw a parallel between Angela Merkel's Germany and Adolf Hitler's...
You may be in for a disappointment. I don't think May is looking for a full Brexit from everything in the EU. As things now stand, she seems to be trying to keep us in the Customs Union. You see, unfortunately, and despite your apparent view, few things today are simply black and white – it looks to me as though Brexit is going to be grey too.
Dark grey perhaps (I think that's where we're heading) or possibly lighter, but grey either way.
Your disappointment, though, may be as nothing compared to the unhappiness that such a dark grey option will mean for life in Britain. It isn't going to be fun.
All I am saying is that exit is black and white. Reentry very possibly may be all shades of grey including threats both ways, that is another story. Angela and Hitler, no, the EU and Hitler yes, what did he ultimately want? What he wanted was. Unified dictatorial continent details are different he end result however would probably be very similar. You simply have to apply your knowledge of Homosapience. And survival of the fittest, the primitively instincts still dominate.
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