Boris Coup: Day 8

It’s day 8 of the Boris coup, and our hero, chief of the Downing Street junta, has suffered his first setback.

A fine setback, too. The very first vote he’s faced since becoming Prime Minister. And he lost it.

Even more toxic than BoJo: Jacob Rees-Mogg, his Brexit sidekick
Showing the full extent of his respect for the Parliament to which he belongs

John le Carré tells us in Smiley’s People that ‘burning’ (blackmail) is a powerful tool for breaking an adversary, but sadly it can have exactly the opposite effect and stiffen resistance rather than overthrowing it.

The idea of cowing Conservative MPs tempted to rebel against the junta’s diktats, by threatening them with losing the whip and effectively ending their careers, probably came from Dominic Cummings, the PM’s hitman, rather than from BoJo himself. Cummings, it will be remembered, is the man whose management style boils down to, “you don’t like my style? There’s the door”.

Sadly, for him and his boss at least, that approach seems to have had the stiffening rather than overpowering effect. Or so we’re told by some of the Conservative MPs who voted again the Conservative government last night. One of them, Sam Gyimah told the Guardian:

For MPs like myself, Downing Street has framed the choice as: speak your mind or keep your job.

It seems 21 Tory MPs had their opposition strengthened, rather than weakened, by the threats. Or, to put it another way, decided that speaking their mind was more important than keeping the job. Some, indeed, might say that a politician’s job isn’t worth having if you can’t speak your mind.

The cause was helped by the behaviour of BoJo’s sidekick, Jacob Rees-Smogg, who has somehow pulled off the trick of being even more obnoxious than his boss. He lay sprawled across the government front bench during much of yesterday’s debate, showing exactly the respect in which he holds the Parliament to which he belongs.

The vote, however, only meant that Parliament wrested control of its own agenda away from government.

Ironically, it was a wonderful application of the principle Cummings has made his own: ‘taking back control’.

That step was necessary for a bill to go forward blocking a no-deal Brexit. The debate on the bill itself will only start today and it has to be completed fast, before Parliament is prorogued (suspended) on Monday.

Prorogation was the central act in the coup, after all. And it was designed to avoid precisely what MPs are trying to do now. One defeat doesn’t mean BoJo’s authoritarian drive is over. Not by a long stretch. As well as being adopted by the Commons, any move to block a hard Brexit also has to get through the Lords by Monday, and it’s clear that BoJo loyalists in the upper House are going to do all they can to delay it there.

BoJo’s bloodied but not yet defeated.

Meanwhile, on the other side, Jeremy Corbyn has let it be known that Labour won’t vote for a General Election until hard Brexit has been blocked. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that a snap election – and early one – can only be called with the consent of two-thirds of the House. If Labour votes against, it won’t happen.

It would be a great idea, from Labour’s point of view. It’s true that Corbyn has been calling for a General Election for years – ever since the last one, two and a half years ago – so changing his tune now won’t be easy for him. But, as I argued yesterday, he needs to. An election in the next few weeks would almost certainly return BoJo to power, with a majority. Just as his blackmail of Tory MPs only strengthened their resolve, so his defeat in Parliament will only reinforce his support among that large minority that wants a Brexit and sees him as their champion against the vile manoeuvrings of MPs.

They see strength where in reality there’s authoritarianism. They see a man taking on the establishment where in reality no one is more establishment than he is. And they’re a minority but a big enough one to give him a win.

Corbyn, and Labour generally, would be far better advised to wait, if Brexit happens, until its pain starts to bite. Then, if BoJo’s still Prime Minister and identified as Mr Brexit, Labour will stand a far better chance against him than it does now.

BoJo, however, may not cling on until then. He’s prepared the ground to weather a defeat like yesterday’s. But how many can he handle? If there are several more, he may find it more than he can bear.

Cummings would doubtless be fired first, the sacrificial lamb to save his master. And then he too would go.

That means that there are two ways to be freed of BoJo’s baleful power: an election a while after Brexit, or more defeats in the coming weeks than he can withstand.

A glimmer of hope. Because in either of those situations, he would be gone. And the coup would be over.

It’s not over yet, but at least we can be more hopeful than at any other time in these first eight days of his drive for autocratic power.