Donald and the Dragon

Let’s start with a bit of a quiz.

See if you can work out which statesman told a journalist from the Economist:

‘Relations with China are excellent.’

When asked by the journalist what the Chinese demanded in return for such excellent relations, he went on:

‘Nothing. That’s what’s so marvellous. They’re a fabulous partner. They ask for nothing in return. All they ask is that we don’t bother them.’

This is an unfamiliar picture of the Chinese dragon, isn’t it? What a mild-mannered, gentle dragon it seems to be. Not at all the picture painted by many in the West, and above all by Donald Trump, the would-be dragon slayer.

Trump and Xi Jinping

The odd thing is that the man who spoke so warmly of China isn’t someone you’d expect to make that kind of judgement. He’s a head of state and, in his campaign for election, he spoke much more dismissively of China, telling Bloomberg News, ‘We do not make agreements with Communists.’

Strange inconsistency, wouldn’t you say? In office, he’s taking a stance that is the opposite of where he stood while a candidate. What’s particularly odd about his judgement of China now, so contrary to Trump’s, is that he’s an outspoken supporter of the US President. He told the international meeting of the allegedly great and the good in Davos that Trump understands geopolitics very well (not a view I share) and uses tariffs as a strategic tool. He told the meeting:

It’s not that he’s protectionist. If you fail to understand the playing field that Trump is playing on, it will be hard to understand his vision. But the guidelines he is putting forward will create a much better world.

If you still can’t place the speaker, it may help to know that the last quote came from the Buenos Aires Times.

Yes, that’s right. This character is Javier Milei. That’s the very Trumpian president of Argentina. Which makes it fascinating that he has expressed such highly un-Trumpian, even contra-Trumpian, views of China.

Trump has just fired the first shot in a new round of a trade war with China. He’s just raised tariffs on Chinese exports to the US from the 10% he initially imposed to 20%. That’s alongside the 25% tariffs he’s now applying to imports from Canada and Mexico, even though it was he who negotiated a free trade agreement with both nations last time he was in office. Not exactly consistent between his two terms...

What’s more, during his campaign he claimed he would reduce prices. Applying tariffs will, however, raise them. Not exactly consistent in his promises. He’s been warned repeatedly that higher tariffs mean higher prices. Unfortunately, he doesn’t listen to people who tell him things he doesn’t want to hear. 

He also proclaims that applying tariffs to Chinese goods is the action of a strong man, putting Beijing in its place. But, as Milei’s comments make clear, the softly-softly approach of China – acting as a good partner and making no demands – works better than Trump’s throwing his weight about.

What’s more, Trump seems to be opening the door to China doing a lot more of that kind of quiet accumulation of influence. Cutting international aid to save a small proportion of US government spending will leave millions around the world in desperate need of help. It seems that, in South Africa alone, 500,000 lives are at risk from the withdrawal of US aid from the UN programme against HIV and Aids.

That’s a glorious opportunity for China to step in and buy itself some more clients, at little cost, by replacing the aid the US has cut off. It doesn’t even need to replace all of it, since replacing even a part will make the Chines look like generous donors and the Americans look like cheapskates. 

So far at least (and Taiwan may in the future prove an exception), China has extended its worldwide influence not by war but by investment. It’s funny to see how western capitalism has reacted with horror, since making investments and reaping the benefits is exactly what capitalism is about. I see plenty to object to in China, above all the fact that it’s a brutally repressive regime, to the extent of taking a genocidal approach to its Uyghur citizens in the west of the country. It’s headed by a man who has made himself dictator for life and surrounded himself with a personality cult. What I can’t see is how the West can honestly criticise it for working to extend its international reach by using the very tools of the capitalist free market that western politicians themselves promote.

Far from acting as a block to China’s continued and stealthy progress, Trump is giving it new opportunities. So it was fascinating to read an article reporting on the views of a former colonel in China’s army, Zhou Bo. Since the Chinese state seems to tolerate his expressing his ideas, I imagine they can’t be too different from those of the political leadership. He’s clear that America is a declining power. That decline, he suggests, is being hastened by Trump’s behaviour:

By the end of his second term, I believe America’s global image will simply become more tarnished, its international standing will just go down further

On the Ukraine war, Zhou said:

The US really holds the key to resolving this issue. China is definitely indispensable … China’s role will be there when it comes to the time of a ceasefire or armistice.

China as the indispensable power? Well, maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. What seems certain to me is that if it’s even on the way to becoming indispensable, then it’s with Trump’s help.

Russia and China are both ugly dictatorships. In the past the US always opposed such regimes. Today, Trump seems intent on cultivating them and helping them advance. Far from Making America Great Again, he appears to be determined to abase America to make Russia and China great. Or, perhaps, the key to his behaviour is the belief that to be great, America needs to have just the same kind of dictatorial regime as they do.

Donald likes to preen himself as the man fighting the Chinese dragon. But is he just someone who fancies he could become a dragon himself?