Countdown to War, Day 28. 25 July: Austria-Hungary pressurises Serbia; Alliance and Entente manoeuvre

One hundred years ago today, on Saturday 25 July 1914, the Manchester Guardian would have added further fuel to the fears the previous day had woken in Martin, our young railwayman. 

A leader, baldly headlined “The European Crisis” considered Austria-Hungary's demands of Serbia, contained in its Diplomatic Note:

The Austrian Note to Servia is very stiff in its terms, but would not any country be angry which believed that the heir to its throne had been assassinated by a conspiracy of army officers in a neighbouring country and in furtherance of a design to detach one of its provinces from its allegiance?

The leader writer set out to take a balanced of the two states, pointing out that:

The strictly correct course for Austria would have been to send copies of the depositions of the Sarayevo inquiry to Belgrade, to ask the Government to try and punish the incriminated officials in accordance with her law, and, further, to take steps to fulfil the promises [of good neighbourliness it had made in 1909]. She has not asked her to inquire into and punish the offences of her subjects, but to apologise at once and inquire afterwards.

For these reasons, Serbia had a right to be aggrieved, and say so. But:

On all other grounds Servia would be well advised, on political grounds, not to press the legal objections to Austria’s Note, but to promise once more to be a good neighbour, to take the necessary disciplinary steps, to express regret for any unlawful actions of her subjects, and to undertake to try all officers and civil servants against whom Austria makes out a prima facie case.

So far so good, even if it was all a bit pious, a bit too much like wishful thinking. Concessions by Serbia might save the peace, but would she make them? Would Austria-Hungary accept them as sufficient if they were offered?

“Don’t be silly,” said the Cynic, “Austria-Hungary wants war. King Peter could crawl on his belly to Vienna and still they’d want war.”

“But why?” asked one of the other railwaymen, the very question Martin wanted answered, “Why would anyone want war for something they could get without one?”

“Because their little mates in Berlin are calling the shots. And the Germans want to tempt the Russians to over-reach so they can stitch ’em up. And the French.”

Franz Joseph I of Austria-Hungary with Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany
Who really holds the reins? Who's leading the way?

The very next words in the article seemed to confirm his view.

We deeply regret that Russia has decided to encourage Servia in resistance to Austria.

Russia? He’d already felt a couple of times over the last week that Russia’s name was cropping up in the news a little too often, in contexts where, it seemed to him, nothing was happening that was in any sense their business. Now it looked as though the Tsar was indeed testing his reach. And what made that most worrying was all the talk of that Dual Alliance Russia had with France which might involve her in any conflict and, as a result of her Entente with both powers, Britain too.

The leader writer concluded on just that point.

Our Ambassador in St Petersburg seems to have been consulted by the Russian Government in the course of yesterday. But we hope that he gave no sort of encouragement to Russian policy, and in any case it will be [Foreign Secretary] Sir Edward Grey’s task not to destroy our influence for good in Europe by marching us into the camp of the Dual Alliance, or for that matter into any camp.

President Poincaré of France with Tsar Nicholas II of Russia
Would they expect Britain to join them if it came to war?

“Good God, no,” said Martin, “None of this has anything to do with Britain. Why would we get involved? I’m sorry that the Archduke and his wife were murdered, but it isn’t our quarrel. What do we need to do except send condolences?”

“Wait and see,” said the Cynic.

Meanwhile, in other areas business continued as usual. 

A cargo of arms had been intercepted off Queenstown, the port of Dublin. 

As war loomed, Manchester was planning to celebrate peace and had set up a special committee to organise festivities for the centenary of peace between Britain and America. A good antidote to all the sabre rattling on the Continent.

And Middlesex had lost its first match of the entire season. Now that was a turn up for the books. Not that it was likely to do much good for Lancashire, which had made a bad start against Yorkshire in “some dull cricket” in Hull.

Finally, it seemed that “the second annual open tournament in connection with Bowden Croquet Club, which has proved highly successful, concludes to-day.”

Really? Were there people genuinely interested in that kind of stuff, he wondered? With war on the horizon and Lancashire doing so badly in the County Championship?

Countdown to War, Day 24. 21 July 1914: growth of trade unionism, and reappearance of a disturbing story

One hundred years ago today, on Tuesday 21 July 1914, Martin, a young member of the still relatively new National Union of Railwaymen, might have taken some encouragement from news in the Manchester Guardian. It even started with a well-deserved side-swipe at government departments.

With that hustling enterprise which distinguishes Government Departments the Chief Registrar of Friendly Societies has now issued his report on the position of trade unions in 1912. The public would take more interest in these documents if they dealt with last year instead of the year before. Nevertheless, this report contains matters of great interest to the social student. In the first place it reveals the immense growth of trade unionism in seven years, and its improved organisation.

“Improved organisation” meant that there were fewer trades unions: down from 742 to 683 over ten years. Despite the fall in number of organisations, the number of members had been steadily climbing:

1903   1,575,000 
1905   1,567,000
1910   2,017,000
1911   2,372,000
1912   2,507,000

The fall in the early years of the century had given way to a rapid rise.

Ten years ago the trade unions probably included about one-fifth of the adult male workers of the country. To-day they approach one-third.

Strikers in London: organisation was growing

What with the 40 or so Labour MPs, it felt as though the working man was beginning to feel his strength and raise his voice. About time.


Not such a good thing was the re-emergence of that damned business in Serbia in the aftermath of the shooting of the Austrian Grand Duke. Two students had been arrested in Hungary over a plot to shoot another important figure of the Empire, the “Ban of Croatia”. Apparently one of them had:

... repeatedly declared that attempts against eminent persons, such as the Archduke Francis Ferdinand... were necessary, as thereby anarchy would be created and intervention of the Servian Army for the union of Croatia and Servia would be facilitated.

That story was followed by one that set still more alarm bells ringing. A Berlin-based Reuter’s correspondent reported on “German Anxieties.”

There is reason to believe that an Austro-Hungarian Note, embodying the results of the investigation into the murder of the Archduke Francis Ferdinand and his wife at Sarayevo, will be communicated to the Powers ... within the next days and possibly to-morrow.

Apparently there was “marked uneasiness” on the stock exchange “as the date for the action which Austria-Hungary proposes to take in Belgrade draws nearer.”

Action? In Belgrade? The capital of Serbia itself? To take action in a foreign capital would surely involve an invasion, wouldn’t it? That was the first he’d heard of any such plans. He wasn’t surprised the stock exchange was concerned. He wasn’t that pleased about it himself. 

In political quarters in Berlin it is not denied that the Austro-Hungarian action, which is imminent, may add temporarily to the strain, but hope is expressed that the crisis which may possibly arise will be confined to Austria-Hungary and Servia, especially as the action to be taken from Vienna will be given a polite though positive form, and its justification, it is thought, must be recognised even in Belgrade.

What on earth was “polite but positive” action?

“They knock on the door before knocking it down and setting fire to your house,” said the Cynic.

And it was all very well to hope that whatever happened would be confined to Austria-Hungary and Serbia, but what if it wasn’t? If it spilled over, where would the spill stop?

“Right on your doorstep,” said the Cynic, “you mark my words.”

Meanwhile, another article spoke of the “Dual Alliance”. Raymond Poincaré, the President of France, was visiting the Tsar of Russia. Their warships had met up too, though that hadn’t been an entirely unmitigated a success: “at four o’clock this morning a thick mist enveloped the French and Russia naval forces, and the France, on board which was M. Poincaré, came into collision with a Russian dredger.”

Yes, well. Perhaps things weren’t running that smoothly inside the Dual Alliance.

Russian ship.
Dangerous. Particularly in mist. Even to allies

Countdown to War, Day 21. 18 July: What's Russia sticking its oar in for? And why's Germany sounding hostile?

One hundred years ago today, on Saturday 18 July 1914, Martin and the other railwaymen in his crew would have opened their Manchester Guardian to read that a movement was gaining steam to reducing the working week for city corporation workers to 48 hours. A meeting had been held, at which:

...the chair was taken by Councillor Davy, who spoke of the work that had always been done by the Labour group in the City Council in advocating the eight-hour day.

An eight-hour day and a six-day week? Everyone in the tracklayer gang agreed in wishing them luck. Who wouldn’t want the working week to be that short?

More generally, most of the news was gloomy. In Ireland, a new organisation rejoicing in the name “Sinn Fein” claimed to have come across a document circulated to police chiefs by the Chief Secretary for Ireland, Augustine Birrell.

Augustine Birrell
Cartoon by "Spy" for Vanity Fair

Sinn Fein quoted Birrell’s document:

When preparing your monthly confidential report, for the present please give a concise report in paragraph 1 of the development of the Irish Volunteer force in your county...

Class of persons who are joining.

Is the force now supported by all sections of Nationalists? ... Is it supported by the Roman Catholic clergy? ...

[On the Protestant Ulster Volunteers] The state of party feeling, and whether any change for the better or worse is noticeable.

Is anything known definitely with regard to the proposed establishment of the Provisional Government?

Still, Martin and his friends had become used to Ireland as the source of bad news that never went away. More worrying were reports from the Continent, starting with one from Vienna:

The “Neue Freie Presse” learns with reference to the present tension between Austria and Servia, due to the Bosnian murders, that the Russian Government hopes the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy will not make demands threatening the national independence of Servia, but is willing, in the interests of peace, to support the demands of Austria-Hungary in Belgrade if they are moderate.

The Russians? What were they sticking their noses in for? It was bad enough that there was “tension” between Austria and Serbia without someone else getting stuck in. And he didn’t like talk of “the interests of peace”. Why was anyone saying they were suddenly at risk?

It seemed that Russia also had a “use for England”. Another article revealed that the German newspaper, the Berliner Tageblatt had reported on rumours of an Anglo-Russian naval agreement. And just at the time, as the Guardian had reported before, that Britain was conducting its biggest ever naval review. The German editor seemed to be quite a cynic:

”Certainly,” he says, “the existence of negotiations over a naval agreement between England and Russia have been denied. Not indeed by Sir Edward Grey [the Foreign Secretary], who chose his words wisely, and stated with perfect truth that there were no negotiations for an alliance. It was the ‘Westminster Gazette’ which denied fully and completely all that had been said on the authority of an absolutely reliable and exactly informed Paris source.

What sort of source is absolutely reliable? A spy?

The German paper was convinced the French, allies of Russia and in their Entente Cordiale with Britain, were involved.

No sensible person in Germany will say that the Entente presents an insurmountable obstacle to better Anglo-German relations... [but] it is just because English statesmen and a very large part of the English people have within the last few months shown with undeniable openness of feeling how valuable to them a good and friendly relationship between the English and German nation appears, that those in Germany who have the same desire ... must express their fears when these friendly wishes ... are undermined from a third side with clever measures and proposals.

Poincaré on his visit to Russia
With Tsar Nicholas II on the imperial yacht Alexandria

It seemed that the French President Raymond Poincaré, who was then on a visit to Russia, would be acting as an intermediary in the supposed negotiations with Britain. Would that undermine relations with Germany?

Certainly those ties were close at the moment. It was with a lighter heart that Martin read out another piece.

The “London Gazette” last night contained the announcement that the King has ordained that the children born to their Royal Highnesses the Duke and Duchess of Brunswick and Luneburg shall at all times hold and enjoy the style and attribute of “highness,” with their titular dignity of prince or princess prefixed to their respective Christian names... and that the designation of the children shall be “a prince (or princess) of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland.”

“Good thing,” one of Martin’s mates pointed out, “we have to keep the traditions going.”

Martin smiled.

“Good thing,” said another, “I’d rather keep them Germans on our side if things do turn nasty. Bloody good soldiers. And I never did trust the Frogs.”

Martin’s smile faded as he looked at him in some surprise. Solders? Things turning nasty? It was no more than he’d been thinking these last couple of days, but it somehow hurt to have it said out loud.